THE TOWER OF BABEL? THE INNOVATION SYSTEM APPROACH VERSUS MAINSTREAM ECONOMICS.

The Innovation systems (IS) approach and the system failures it identifies, play an important role in the design and legitimization of innovation policy. This paper analyses the usefulness of this concept. We conclude that the IS-approach can be useful to visualize the complexity of the innovation processes. However, for policy design this approach is less suited, because system failures aim at symptoms in stead of underlying incentive structures. In our view, policy design should be based on standard economic framework of market- and government failures. Theoretically, an exception is the system failure path dependency. However, the empirical evidence for the existence of this phenomenon is mixed. Furthermore, policy initiatives to tackle path dependence are likely to be subject to severe government failure.innovation policy, Innovation systems, market failure

Helping thy neighbour: productivity, welfare and international trade

We describe the relation between welfare growth and productivity growth. We argue that differences in productivity and productivity growth between sectors or countries are irrelevant from a policy perspective. Specialisation is based on the comparative advantages of countries. Since, by nature, some sectors witness higher productivity growth than others, so do countries. Although, at the global level, productivity growth and welfare growth are two sides of the same coin, at the national level they are not. The welfare effects of productivity growth in part leak away to consumers in other countries because technological progress is translated into a decline of export prices relative to import prices. Or stated differently, importing countries benefit from the lower prices due to technological innovations in exporting countries. These terms of trade effects of productivity growth on welfare do not only exist in theory. Empirically, we find significant and large terms of trade effects. Our overall conclusion is that once this trade perspective is taken into account, productivity is less attractive as a primary policy goal for governments. The primary task for governments is rather to create an environment in which private agents can explore the comparative advantages they have.welfare, comparative advantages, terms of trade, productivity, economic policy

Which Survey Indicators Are Useful for Monitoring Consumption? Evidence fron European Countries

This paper assesses the information content of two survey indicators for consumption developments in the near future for eight European countries in the period 1985-1998. Empirical work on this topic typically focuses on consumer confidence, the perceptions of buyers of consumption goods. This paper examines whether perceptions of sellers of consumption goods, measured by retail trade surveys, may also improve short-term monitoring of consumption. We find that both consumer confidence and retailer confidence embody valuable information, when analyzed in isolation. For France, Italy and Spain we conclude that adding retail confidence does not improve the indicator model once consumer confidence has been included. For the UK the reverse case is obtained. For the remaining four countries we show that combining consumer sentiment and retail trade confidence into a composite indicator leads to optimal results. Our results suggest that incorporating information from retail trade surveys may offer significant benefits for the analysis of short-term prospects of consumption.consumption; consumer confidence; retail trade confidence; composite indicators

An alternative demand indicator: the 'non-accelerating inflation rate of capacity utilization'

This article examines the usefulness of the NAIRCU, the 'non-accelerating inflation rate of capacity utilization' as a demand indicator of inflation for eight European countries. So far the NAIRCU has been estimated for the USA only, where it serves as a useful indicator for inflation. In most European countries, deviations from the equilibrium level of capacity utilization influence inflation significantly. Further, the results not only indicate that in more recent periods the NAIRCU has shifted upward, indicating higher efficiency of the production process, but also that confidence intervals have increased over time reducing the usefulness of the NAIRCU somewhat.

The Stock Market and Consumer Confidence: European Evidence

This paper studies the (short-run) relationship between stock market developments and consumer confidence in eleven European countries over the years 1986-2001. We find that stock returns and changes in sentiment are positively correlated for nine countries, with Germany as the main exception. Moreover, stock returns generally Granger-cause consumer confidence at very short horizons (two weeks to one month), but not vice versa. The stock market-confidence relationship is driven by expectations about economy-wide conditions rather than personal finances. This suggests that the confidence channel is not part of the conventional wealth effect, but a separate transmission channel.consumer confidence; stock market; wealth effect